It looks as though the slowdown in new listings at the end of March was just a temporary lull. We are now seeing them rise again. We have seen over 10,000 new listings for every 28 day period in 2016 from January 30 onwards apart from 3 days - March 31 to April 2 - so the temporary lull coincided with the week after Easter.
In 2015 we NEVER saw more than 10,000 new listings in any 28 day period, and the last time before that was April 17, 2014.
Of course the supply of new listings continues to be poorly matched to the price ranges where they are most needed.
Across Greater Phoenix, during the first quarter of 2016, we saw 7% more new listings than in the first quarter of 2015. However we also saw 7% more closed sales, so these numbers are nicely matched. They are not so nicely matched when we analyze by price segment:
| Price Range | Change in New Listings | Change in Closed Listings | Comment on Change 2015 to 2016 | Ratio of New Supply to Quarterly Sales Q1 2016 |
| Up to $100K | -28% | -28% | balanced | 1.4 |
| $100K-$125K | -24% | -24% | balanced | 1.3 |
| $125K-$150K | -20% | -16% | new supply dropped relative to sales | 1.2 |
| $150K-$175K | -1% | +14% | sales rose much faster than new supply | 1.3 |
| $175K-$200K | +12% | +15% | sales rose slightly faster than new supply | 1.5 |
| $200K-$225K | +19% | +22% | sales rose slightly faster than new supply | 1.5 |
| $225K-$250K | +23% | +19% | new supply rose slightly faster than sales | 1.6 |
| $250K-$275K | +26% | +32% | sales rose faster than new supply | 1.5 |
| $275K-$300K | +15% | +17% | sales rose slightly faster than new supply | 1.7 |
| $300K-$350K | +15% | +21% | sales rose faster than new supply | 1.8 |
| $350K-$400K | +17% | +3% | new supply rose much faster than sales | 2.1 |
| $400K-$500K | +21% | +22% | balanced | 2.1 |
| $500K-$600K | +23% | +18% | new supply rose faster than sales | 2.5 |
| $600K-$800K | +33% | +18% | new supply rose much faster than sales | 2.8 |
| $800K-$1M | +10% | +12% | balanced | 3.0 |
| $1M-$1.5M | +16% | -15% | new supply rose while sales fell | 3.7 |
| $1.5M-$2M | +12% | +22% | sales rose faster than new supply | 3.7 |
| $2M-$3M | +6% | +4% | balanced | 3.4 |
| Over $3M | +27% | +37% | sales rose faster than new supply | 5.5 |
Below $275K we therefore see continued strong appreciation, short times on market and low cancellation and expiry rates.
From $275K to $350K we see very healthy market conditions with new supply and closed sales both up significantly from last year.
From $350K-$400K the growth in supply was strong, but sales growth was much weaker than average, suggesting there may be a few problems developing for sellers. However from $400K to $500K the percentage growth in new listings was matched by the growth in closed sales. I would describe this sector of the market as normal, healthy and growing, with no major shortages of buyers or sellers.
From $500K to $800K new supply outstripped the growth in sales, so even though there was a healthy increase in volume we see more competition building between sellers.
From $800K to $1M the increases were balanced but we do see 3 times as many new listings as we see closed sales. This is likely to mean higher cancellation and expiry rates and long times to sell ahead. It also means minimal upward pressure on pricing.
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